National Passenger Vehicle New Energy Market Retail Sales Down 3% YoY, SHFE Tin Prices Maintain Fluctuating Rangebound Trend [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on September 12, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) dipped slightly and then fluctuated higher in the night session, closing at 272,100 yuan/mt, up 0.27% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) On September 11, the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released the August power battery monthly data. In August, China's total exports of power and other batteries reached 22.6 GWh, down 2.6% MoM but up 23.9% YoY, accounting for 16.8% of the month's sales. Among these, power battery exports were 15.1 GWh, representing 66.6% of total exports, up 1.9% MoM and 35.7% YoY; other battery exports were 7.6 GWh, accounting for 33.4% of total exports, down 10.4% MoM and up 5.6% YoY. From January to August, China's cumulative exports of power and other batteries reached 173.1 GWh, up 48.5% YoY. (2) Data from the CPCA showed that from September 1 to 7, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 181,000 units, down 3% YoY from the same period in September last year and down 1% MoM from the same period last month, with a penetration rate of 59.6%. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 7.752 million units, up 25% YoY. From September 1 to 7, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers reached 179,000 units, up 5% YoY from the same period in September last year and up 12% MoM from the same period last month, with a penetration rate of 58.1%. Cumulative wholesale sales since the beginning of the year reached 9.122 million units, up 33% YoY. (3) According to CNBC, citing sources from the US Treasury, Treasury Secretary Besant met with Wash, Lindsey, and Bullard this week, and the selection process for the Fed Chairman is still ongoing. Besant is waiting for the end of the Fed's quiet period before engaging with current Fed officials. Besant favors a long-term reduction of the balance sheet.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas such as Yunnan, and some smelters maintained production halts for maintenance in September (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin bars in east China declined, and some producers saw lower operating rates; Electronics industry: The electronics end-user sector in south China entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only meeting just-in-time procurement; Other sectors: Demand remained stable in areas such as tinplate and chemicals, without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Trading in the spot market remained sluggish yesterday, with most downstream and end-user enterprises continuing to make just-in-time procurement or use inventory for production. As prices rebounded, spot market trading is expected to remain sluggish.

[Data Source Statement: Data other than publicly available information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]